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United Airlines said “acceleration” in demand amid declining geopolitical and economic uncertainty should help it avoid the previous quarter’s “recessionary” forecast for full-year earnings.
The more optimistic outlook came as the carrier reported second-quarter results that were below Wall Street forecasts, but included revenue that topped $15bn for the first time.
The biggest US airline by revenue on Wednesday said beginning in early July it had seen a 6-point acceleration in overall demand and a double-digit acceleration in business bookings compared to the second quarter, which ended on June 30.
Chief executive Scott Kirby said: “The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year.”
United’s optimism about the second half of 2025 echoes rival Delta Air Lines, which last week restored its financial guidance for the full year and said demand trends had “stabilised”.
United expects to deliver adjusted earnings of $9 to $11 a share in fiscal 2025.
In April, two weeks after President Donald Trump launched his “liberation day” tariff blitz against the US’s trading partners, United warned “softer” economic conditions spurred “volatility in the market and softer demand for travel” during the first three months of the year. Management at the time forecast full-year earnings of $7 to $9 a share in a “recessionary environment”.
While Trump’s trade war did not push the US into recession in recent months — and economists have scaled back the odds of this happening this year — war in the Middle East injected a new element of political uncertainty from mid-June. Conflict between Iran and Israel pushed oil prices to multi-month highs, before the two sides subsequently agreed a ceasefire.
Kirby said that, like a year ago, United “anticipates another inflection in industry supply in mid-August”, suggesting a less competitive outlook.
The company said customer demand at Newark Liberty International Airport, its main New York City-area hub, had “returned to its historic range”. The airport had suffered in recent months from reported radar and radio communications shutdowns that resulted in flight delays and travel chaos.
United reported a 26 per cent year-on-year drop in net income to $973mn in the three months ended June 30, while revenue rose almost 2 per cent to $15.2bn. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast net income of $1.3bn on revenue of $15.3bn.
Shares in the carrier were down 1.5 per cent in after-hours trading.
