Gen Z Sees Recession Indicators Everywhere. Should You Be Listening?

Generation Z is using social media to voice concerns about a potential U.S. recession, drawing attention to signs they believe are indicators of economic stress: from Lady Gaga’s newest album to 2000s-style low-rise jeans. Is this an exaggerated response to uncertainty, or is Gen Z tapped into early economic warning signs that might typically go unnoticed?

While it can be tempting to get sucked into these theories, ultimately, experts and data suggest that these are unreliable indicators and that a recession is not looming. Here’s what to know.

What Gen Z Says

Generation Z is interpreting the return of 2000s trends as indicators of an impending recession. The resurgence of fashion styles such as low-rise jeans, cheetah print, and rhinestone apparel parallels the cultural trends leading up to the 2008 Great Recession. In turn, Gen Z is concluding that these are warning signs of a similar time period, rather than turning to actual economic data and expert analysis.

Music is another way Gen Z is interpreting recession indicators. For instance, Lady Gaga’s latest album has led TikTok users to comment on how the country is heading towards economic turmoil due to the album’s similarity to her pre-recession era music. Newer artists, such as Chappell Roan, are also sparking commentary on the resemblance of 2000s-styled music, reinforcing this theory. 

What the Data Says

So, is there any merit to what Gen Z sees as cultural cues to a souring economy? Established economic indicators suggest no. Traditionally, economists look at GDP, unemployment rates, and the stock market to gauge recession risk. Let’s break down where each of these stands.

GDP

Government data reports that GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025. A drop in government spending, offset partially by investment and consumer activity, contributed to the GDP decline. For a recession to start, there needs to be an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in GDP for two consecutive quarters.

J.P. Morgan anticipates a 0.25 percent annualized growth rate in GDP for the second half of 2025. Based on their data, they estimate that the probability of a recession has decreased from 60 percent to 40 percent over the last quarter due to a reduction in tariffs on China by the U.S. 

Unemployment Rates

Economists and policy makers use the Sahm rule to identify if there is a recession, as described by Congress. The rule signals a recession if “the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low in the previous 12 months.”

Unemployment rates are currently at 4.2 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For comparison, the unemployment rate before the 2008 recession was 5.0 percent. Thus, the rule has not been triggered, indicating that there is no recession, though it remains a useful early indicator of a potential recession.

The Stock Market

The Dow was down just 0.1% on June 18, 2025. This particular downturn, however, appears to reflect investor caution rather than signaling an impending recession. For reference, the Dow declined 7% on September 29, 2008.

The Bottom Line

Gen Z’s recession indicators, such as music and fashion, may be persuasive, but their concerns do not reflect actual trends. While the pressures of federal layoffs and tariff tensions persist, most traditional indicators signal a moderately stable environment and do not suggest the country is in a recession. 

Ultimately, while Gen Z’s recession interpretations may not be reliable, they do highlight a cultural shift in how younger generations understand the economy, relying on cultural cues rather than traditional data.