G7 reaches its half century in Canada with a focus on Ukraine and tariffs

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Anniversaries are a theme for the next seven days. The G7, whose membership gathers in Kananaskis, Alberta, on Sunday will celebrate 50 years of the rich club’s existence — though this might be tested at the Canadian summit given tensions over US President Donald Trump’s tariff war, the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza and Ukraine-Russia negotiations.

This week will also see the US Army, America’s first national institution, commemorate its 250th anniversary with a parade on Saturday charting its evolution since the Revolutionary War. That is the same day that the EU will mark the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Schengen Agreement, in which Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands agreed to gradually remove border controls. And finally, also on Saturday, Trump turns 79.

Westminster politics has a set piece moment this week when UK chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her spending review statement to parliament on Wednesday. Negotiations have gone down to the wire, but we do know that money will be allocated for transport, skills training and housing.

The Polish government faces a vote of confidence on the same day in an attempt by prime minister Donald Tusk to shore up his centre left coalition after the blow from this month’s bruising presidential election victory by ultraconservative Karol Nawrocki. Tusk ought to win his vote since his coalition partners are unlikely to want to risk losing power, though such moves are always risky.

Elsewhere in Europe, delegates from nearly 200 UN member states are gathering in Nice to seek to reach consensus around ocean protection. One target for the French and Costa Rican organisers of the gathering is to secure global implementation of the UN High Seas Treaty, which was agreed in 2023 but has not yet entered into force because too few countries have ratified it.

In a thin week for earnings news, the highlights are set to be Zara-owner Inditex reporting first-quarter results and British grocery market leader Tesco providing a trading update, and presumably some guidance on UK consumer confidence.

There is more company news scheduled away from the markets. Tesla launches robotaxis in its backyard — aka Austin, Texas — and the Mac faithful gather online (where else) for the world developer conference run by Apple, which is struggling to make its Siri system work while facing pressure to deliver on AI. The company overplayed its hand last year and announced key features that it still hasn’t rolled out. Quite a rare mis-step and suggests Apple is having serious problems getting its AI strategy off the ground. This is all happening while it’s getting hammered by tariffs and legal cases and losing market share in China, so it’s in need of some good news. For more on all of that, read the curtain raiser written by my colleague in San Francisco Michael Acton.

The economic data run is also a trickle, though a lot of central bankers will be busy giving speeches.

For the US, the main concern is inflation, with the consumer price index figure out on Wednesday expected to show inflation reaccelerated due to the effect of sweeping import duties — only some of which have been put on hold by Trump’s White House administration. The figure will be an important indicator for the next interest rate decision, being made by the Federal Reserve next week.

Germany will also report inflation figures, while the EU gives a labour market update. For the UK, the key data releases this week are the labour market figures on Tuesday and monthly GDP for April on Thursday, with economists polled by Reuters predicting a 0.1 per cent contraction. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

Don’t forget that it’s Father’s day on Sunday. If you are looking for a gift idea, do take a look at this list.

What are your priorities for the week ahead? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Apple begins its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) with an opening keynote address by the tech company’s chief executive Tim Cook. The completely online and free event runs until Friday

• Australia: King’s birthday holiday. Financial markets closed

• China: May consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Germany, Norway, Switzerland: Whit Monday holiday. Financial markets closed

• Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey: Eid al-Adha (Feast of Sacrifice) holiday. Financial markets closed

• Japan: revised Q1 GDP estimate

• US: Conference Board employment index

Tuesday

• FT Live’s annual securitisation accelerator event Global ABS begins in Barcelona, Spain, running until Thursday. Register here

• Randall Kroszner, external member of the Bank of England’s financial policy committee gives a dinner speech at the ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy in Frankfurt, Germany

• Ashtead shareholders to vote on a proposed US primary listing. If approved, the change is expected to become effective in the first quarter of 2026

• UK: Bank of England’s Q1 Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return data. Also, June labour market figures and the May BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor

• Results: Bellway June trading update, FirstGroup FY, Gamestop Q1, Oxford Instruments FY, Safestore HY, JM Smucker Q4, Tatton Asset Management FY

Wednesday

• Victoria Saporta, executive director of markets at the Bank of England, speaks at the Bank of Finland and SUERF conference in Helsinki, Finland, titled ‘Approaches to QT — How to transition to the steady state?’, Helsinki, Finland

• Nathanaël Benjamin, executive director for financial stability strategy and risk at the Bank of England to speak at the Global investment management summit

• US: May CPI inflation rate data

• Results: Fuller, Smith & Turner FY, Inditex Q1, Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust FY, VP FY

Thursday

• Tesla set to launch robotaxis in Austin, Texas

• Nigeria: Democracy Day. Financial markets closed

• Russia: financial markets closed for Russia Day

• UK: April GDP estimate

• US: May PPI inflation rate data

• Results: Adobe Q2, Crest Nicholson HY, Halma FY, Idox HY, Mind Gym FY, Motorpoint FY, Tesco Q1 trading statement

Friday

• EU: April industrial production figures and Q1 labour market data

• Germany: May CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: Bank of England/Ipsos May Inflation Attitudes Survey. Also, KPMG-REC UK Report on Jobs.

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• France: United Nations Ocean Conference, co-hosted by France and Costa Rica, begins in Nice. This year’s theme is ‘Accelerating action and mobilising all actors to conserve and sustainably use the ocean’ and it runs until Friday

Tuesday

Wednesday

• Belgium: European Council on Foreign Relations chair Carl Bildt, Congressional Leadership Fund former president Dan Conston and Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen are among the speakers at the two-day Brussels Forum 2025, which will focus on transatlantic political and economic issues

• Poland: vote of confidence in prime minister Donald Tusk’s coalition government

• UK: government spending review. Chancellor Rachel Reeves makes a statement in the House of Commons

Thursday

• Russia: Russia Day, marking the day in 1990 when the First Congress of People’s Deputies of the Russian Federation adopted the Declaration on Russia’s National Sovereignty

• US: 125th US Open golf tournament tees off at the Oakmont Country Club in Plum, Pennsylvania, concluding on Sunday

Friday

• UK: Assisted dying bill vote expected in the Commons. Also, the King’s Birthday Honours List announced ahead of its publication in The Gazette. Among those known to be receiving a gong are retired footballer David Beckham, who will be given a knighthood

Saturday

• EU: 40th anniversary of the signing of the Schengen Agreement

• Falkland Islands: Liberation Day. A public holiday in the southern Atlantic islands marking the surrender of Argentine forces in 1982 after a 10-week war in which 255 British service personnel, three islanders and 649 Argentines died

• France: 93rd 24 Hours of Le Mans — ‘the greatest endurance race in the world’ — begins in Le Mans

• UK: King Charles III attends the Trooping the Colour ceremony in central London, marking his official birthday

• US: President Donald Trump celebrates his 79th birthday, on the same date that the US Army commemorates its 250th anniversary

Sunday

• Trinity Sunday

• Father’s day celebrated internationally

• Canada: 2025 G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Kananaskis, Alberta, running until June 17, marking the 50th year of the international rich nations club. Discussion topics set to include global conflicts and routes to economic stability