End Nato secrecy to convince voters on defence spending, says Lithuania

Good morning. Donald Trump’s bombing of Iran is an enormous gamble on destroying the Islamic republic’s nuclear weapons programme without provoking a conflict that could rip the Middle East apart and upend global stability. Here’s our story on how — and why — he made his decision.

Yesterday’s early morning strikes kick-started a critical week for European foreign policy. Nato leaders meet tomorrow for a summit where their spending promises could determine the future of US support for the continent’s security. Many of them will then make the short trip to Brussels for Thursday’s EU summit where details of that spending will be discussed.

Here, our Baltic correspondent is told that Nato’s military capability gaps should be declassified to convince voters to support higher defence spending, and then I unpack what the Iran crisis means for Europe.

Shopping list

Nato should allow countries to say what military capabilities they are lacking to help them win public support for higher levels of defence spending, Lithuania’s foreign minister tells Richard Milne.

Context: Nato allies meeting in The Hague this week will increase their defence spending target from 2 per cent of GDP to 3.5 per cent, plus an extra 1.5 per cent on infrastructure. Spain secured an opt-out from that pledge yesterday, in a sign of how it is causing concern in many European capitals.

Kęstutis Budrys told the Financial Times that keeping secret the military capabilities that countries need “weakens the position and arguments of those pushing for higher expenditure”, especially in nations located further from Russia.

“If we would declassify them, and show to our societies what we have and what we need, it would be much easier to convince them to support this decision. I’m not talking about this region, the Nordic-Baltics; I’m talking about other nations,” he said.

The three Baltic states are seen as the most vulnerable part of Nato should Russia turn its attention to the western alliance after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. All are upping their defence spending to more than 5 per cent of GDP by next year.

Lithuania is increasing its land troops to division size of about 17,500 soldiers by 2030 while Germany will have a permanent brigade based in the Baltic country by 2027. Other Nato troops including from the US, UK, France and Canada are based throughout the Baltic region while the defence alliance also looks after air policing in the three countries.

Budrys said Nato should talk about capabilities such as air defence, artillery stockpiles, and long-range missiles needed to destroy Russia’s weapons to avoid become bogged down purely in a discussion of which countries meet the Nato target.

“A discussion only about the numbers becomes toxic in Europe,” he added.

A Nato official declined to comment on Budrys’ comments. But the official added: “Capability targets set the resources, forces and capabilities allies need to fulfil our defence plans . . . The exact details are classified but we will need, for example: a 400 per cent increase in air and missile defence; thousands more armoured vehicles and tanks; millions more artillery shells.”

Chart du jour: Taking off

European jet fuel and diesel prices have soared thanks to the Israel-Iran conflict threatening key supplies.

Nervous bystanders

Seven B-2 bombers flying 18 hours to drop 14 30,000lb “bunker buster” bombs on alleged Iranian nuclear weapons facilities was not exactly what European foreign ministers had in mind when they urged the US to “refrain from taking steps which lead to further escalation”.

Context: Israel began military strikes on Iran 10 days ago aimed at destroying its nuclear facilities. Donald Trump ignored calls for “de-escalation” and a return to negotiations with Tehran yesterday morning with the bombing of key atomic sites.

EU foreign ministers will gather in Brussels today to discuss the fallout from the US attacks, with three key issues to debate.

First, could Iran retaliate against US allies in Europe? European citizens, military assets and businesses located in and around Iran are all seen as potential targets for Tehran, should it seek to punish the wider west.

Second, what will be the economic impact? Officials say Tehran will probably use asymmetrical attacks, such as impeding trade routes through the Gulf, either directly or through its Houthi proxies in Yemen that have menaced western ships for years. That will drive up oil prices and overall shipping costs.

Third, what role can the EU play going forward? While the US intervention lays bare the failure of European-led diplomatic efforts to find a compromise with Tehran over its nuclear programme, many in Paris, London, Berlin and Brussels hope that the long-standing communication channels will be reactivated when Israel, Iran and the US decide it is time to down arms.

What to watch today

1. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits Brussels for EU-Canada summit.

2. EU foreign ministers meet.

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