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Preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments indicate that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact following US strikes on its main nuclear sites, two officials said.
The people said the intelligence suggested that Iran’s stockpile of 408kg of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not concentrated in Fordow, one of its two main enrichment sites, at the time of last weekend’s attack.
It had been distributed to various other locations, the assessments found.
The findings call into question US President Donald Trump’s assertion that the bombing “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme.
The people said EU governments were still awaiting a full intelligence report on the extent of the damage to Fordow — which was built deep beneath a mountain near the holy city of Qom — and that one initial report suggested “extensive damages, but not full structural destruction”.
Iranian officials have suggested the enriched uranium stockpile was moved before the US bombing of the plant, which came after days of Israeli strikes on the country.
The US used massive bunker-buster bombs to attack Fordow and Natanz, Iran’s other main uranium enrichment facility, on Sunday. It fired cruise missiles at a third site, Isfahan, which was used in the fuel conversion cycle and for storage.
Trump told reporters at a Nato leaders’ summit this week: “I think all of the nuclear stuff is down there because it’s very hard to remove.”
He has dismissed a provisional American intelligence assessment, leaked to US media, that said Iran’s nuclear programme was only set back by a matter of months.
The Israel Atomic Energy Commission said this week that it assessed that US and Israeli strikes had “set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years”.
But experts have warned that if Tehran had retained its stockpile of enriched uranium, and had set up advance centrifuges at hidden sites, it could still have the capacity to produce the fissile material required for a weapon.
Iran insists its programme is for peaceful civilian purposes.
Fordow was the main site for enriching uranium up to 60 per cent purity, a small step away from weapons grade. Experts said the 408kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent had been stored at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan before Israel launched its war against Iran on June 13.
Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium was more than 8,400kg, but most of that was enriched to low levels.
Satellite images of Fordow after Sunday’s bombing show tunnel entrances apparently sealed with earth and holes that may be the entry points of the US’s 30,000lb precision-guided bunker busters. Access roads also appear damaged.
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said this week that Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi had sent a letter to the IAEA on June 13 warning that Iran would “adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials”.
Grossi said the UN nuclear watchdog’s inspectors, who have been unable to visit the plants since Israel launched its assault on Iran, should be allowed to return to the sites to “account for the stockpiles of uranium, including, most importantly, the 408kg enriched to 60 per cent”.
The US has not provided definitive intelligence to EU allies on Iran’s remaining nuclear capabilities following the strikes, and is withholding clear guidance on how it plans future relations with Tehran, said three officials briefed on the discussions.
EU policy towards Tehran was “on hold” pending a new initiative from Washington on seeking a diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis, the people said, adding that conversations between Trump and EU leaders this week had failed to provide a clear message.
The Trump administration had been holding indirect negotiations with Tehran before the war in the hopes of a deal to curb its nuclear activities.
Trump said on Wednesday that Washington would talk to Tehran next week, but he also suggested a deal might not be needed following the strikes on Iran’s nuclear plants.
“It is completely erratic,” said one of the people. “For now, we are doing nothing.”
British, French and German foreign ministers had held talks on the nuclear crisis with Araghchi days before the US strikes, hoping to secure a diplomatic solution.
“We’re in a volatile place where the E3 is waiting on the US, who appear to themselves be waiting on the Israelis,” said a second person, referring to the group of France, Germany and the UK, which, alongside the EU, have been part of long-running negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme.
