Nato defence ministers to discuss path to 5% military spending

Good morning. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz runs the White House gauntlet with US President Donald Trump today, with his fellow EU leaders hoping for smiles and backslaps, not finger-wagging and Berlin-bashing.

Today, I explain what Nato defence ministers will discuss as part of the alliance’s big-money rearmament push, before Moldova’s prime minister tells me how their push to gain energy independence from Russia is racing ahead of schedule.

Shopping list

A pledge by Nato countries to raise their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP will get more real today, as the alliance’s defence ministers discuss in detail which new military capabilities they need to invest in.

Context: Donald Trump has demanded Nato members hit the 5 per cent target. Secretary-general Mark Rutte has developed a formula that includes spending 3.5 per cent on core defence, and 1.5 per cent on related topics such as cyber security and infrastructure. All members are expected to commit to that at the Nato leaders’ summit later this month.

“We are going to take a huge leap forward. We will strengthen our deterrence and defence by agreeing ambitious new capability targets,” Rutte said about today’s meeting.

“These targets set out what forces and concrete capabilities the allies need,” he added, citing air and missile defence systems, long-range weapons, and logistics platforms as “top priorities”.

“To deliver on our new targets, it’s clear that we will need significantly higher defence spending,” Rutte said. “That underpins everything.”

European capitals hope that the higher spending pledge will mollify Trump’s long-standing enmity towards Nato, and avoid a repeat of the 2018 summit where he threatened to withdraw from the alliance.

“Let me cut to the core of our message: 5 per cent,” said Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to Nato. “This is not going to be just a pledge, it’s going to be a commitment.” 

“[Today’s] ministerial is our chance to align our commitments. The United States expects every ally to step up with concrete plans, budgets, timelines, deliverables to meet the 5 per cent target and close capability gaps,” he said.

“The United States is committed to Nato, full stop . . . but we also think it’s reasonable that our allies be also committed to Article 3. Which includes their individual defence and the collective defence,” Whitaker added, pointedly noting that some allies still don’t meet a 2 per cent pledge made 11 years ago.

Chart du jour: Fast lane

Europe and the US invest similar levels into EV production — despite the US landmark Inflation Reduction Act — but Europe has a higher production capacity, according to a new report by Bruegel and the Rhodium Group.

Holding the line

Moldova is on track to commission a new electricity line by the end of this year that will end Russia’s long-standing efforts to use energy as a weapon against the country, as it seeks to instead deeper integrate its power grid and economy with the EU.

Context: The former Soviet republic located between Romania and Ukraine is an EU candidate country. Moscow has used Moldova’s historical reliance on Russian gas and electricity supplies as leverage against its government.

Chișinău is constructing a new electricity connection with Romania, supported by the EU, to enhance co-ordination with the bloc’s grid, while also driving a surge in domestic renewable energy generation.

“We’re working hard to shorten the commissioning of this line. It was initially supposed to be commissioned . . . mid-year 2026. We’ve got [a new target] of the end of 2025,” Prime Minister Dorin Recean told the FT in an interview. “But we may not stop there. We will try to squeeze the scale even more. We call it the energy independence line.”

“For the last four years, Moldova did a tremendous transformation from 100 per cent dependency on energy, both gas and electricity, from Russia to zero dependency,” he said.

Moldova still uses some power supplied by a plant in the breakaway region of Transnistria, which is controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Recean called that a “technical vulnerability” that the new power line would erase.

At the same time, the country is rapidly increasing its renewable power generation capacity. In 2021, locally produced renewables provided just 3 per cent of its consumption. In April, they provided 35 per cent, and more solar and wind capacity was recently auctioned.

“Our next step is to invest in battery storage and balancing capacity,” Recean said, adding that this would support the country’s pitch to investors as a hub for IT, pharmaceuticals and electronics manufacturing and research.

What to watch today

1. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump.

2. German foreign minister Johann Wadephul hosts his Israeli counterpart Gideon Sa’ar in Berlin.

3. Nato defence ministers meet.

4. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

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