South Korea elects a president as EU rules on Bulgarian euro entry

Hello and welcome to the working week.

It’s decision time on a number of fronts during the next seven days. I’ll start with South Korea, which will on Tuesday elect a new president at a crucial time for Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

South Korea is wrestling with slowing growth while being battered by global trade tensions. The clear frontrunner, according to the polls, is the 61-year-old leftwinger Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea. Meanwhile, the ruling right of centre People Power party has fallen into disarray, largely due to its reluctance to break with disgraced former PPP president Yoon Suk Yeol, a hardline former prosecutor who was impeached halfway through his five-year term and subsequently removed following his ill-fated martial law declaration last year.

Whoever triumphs on Tuesday will have to grapple with a slowing economy under pressure from the effects of US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, as well as a North Korea emboldened by its growing nuclear arsenal and its blossoming relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. For more on that, read this.

The Eurozone will be making both economic and political choices this week. On Wednesday, the European Commission is expected to publish its long-awaited view on whether Bulgaria is ready to adopt the euro. Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov is confident of getting the green light and making the currency legal tender as soon as January 1 2026.

The other bit of euro news this week will be from Frankfurt, where the European Central Bank’s rate-setting committee has a decision to make. The hawks have been lining up to urge caution, but a 25 basis points cut is taken as a given, priced in at close to 100 per cent probability, according to Reuters. Want to keep up to date with interest rates (and inflation) globally? The FT has a tracker for that.

In UK politics, the choice is more between guns and butter as we await the publication of the government’s strategic defence review on Monday, which will outline new threats, the capabilities needed to tackle them, the state of the British armed forces and the resources available. The answer to that last question is likely to be not much. The overall solution, like the answer to so many of life’s modern questions it seems, is to go digital.

Some decisions are already made, but need backing. With this in mind Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is heading to Saskatoon on Monday, hoping to nurture a love-in among the first ministers of the Canadian provinces and push his “strongest economy in the G7” ambition.

A key goal in this effort (led by Canada’s minister for transport and internal trade, and former FT deputy editor, Chrystia Freeland) is to exorcise federal trade barriers, estimated to cost the economy $200bn a year, by July 1 (Canada Day). Carney is also expected to outline “One Canadian Economy” legislation to fast track projects such as ports, critical mineral mines and trade corridors.

The corporate results trickle through again, bulging in the middle of the week. It’s a similar story for the economic reports, the most notable being US employment figures, the OECD economic outlook and the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) comparisons between the larger economies. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

Some of us were turned on to computer gaming by Sinclair’s ZX Spectrum. For my Gen Z kids, it was the Nintendo Switch. This will be a momentous week for them (and one in which I feel the generation gap yawning ever wider) as Nintendo launches its much anticipated next-generation Switch 2 games console with forecasts of 15mn unit sales in the company’s current financial year. The new machine promises a larger screen, upgraded magnetic controllers, called Joy-Cons, and a new chat function. The only feature I wish for them to keep is the app that enables me to see how much time my offspring spend on the device when they might have been studying.

Are you excited about a new games console? Can Nintendo top the communal shout fest that is Super Smash Bros? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• US Federal Reserve board member Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference: Structural Shifts and Monetary Policy, in Seoul

• Catherine Mann, a Monetary Policy Committee member at the Bank of England, joins a fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors IF 75th anniversary conference in Washington

• Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC May manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• China: Dragon Boat Festival holiday (Tuen Ng). Financial markets closed.

• UK: British Retail Consortium May Economic Monitor report and Nationwide May House Price Index

• Results: The Campbell’s Company Q3, Sirius Real Estate FY

Tuesday

• Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech at the Naigai Josei Chosa Kai meeting in Japan.

• Sarah Hunter, assistant governor (economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia gives a keynote speech at the Economic Society of Australia Queensland Business Lunch in Brisbane

• De La Rue shareholders to vote on the proposed takeover of the company by Atlas at a general meeting. If approved, the deal will become effective on July 2

• OECD Economic Outlook

• China: Caixin May manufacturing PMI data

• EU: flash May inflation estimate and April unemployment data

• US: April Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Jolts) data

• Results: British American Tobacco HY trading statement, Chemring HY, CrowdStrike Q1, Dollar General Q1, FD Technologies FY, Ferguson Q3, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2, Pennon FY

Wednesday

• Australia: Q1 GDP estimate

• Canada: interest rate announcement

• Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC May services PMI data

• UK: International Reserves data

• US: Beige Book published

• Results: B&M European Value Retail FY, Descartes Systems Q1, DiscoverIE FY, Dollar Tree Q1, Empiric Student Property AGM and Q1 trading statement, Ninety One FY, Paragon Banking Group HY, Seraphim Space Investment Trust Q3, WHSmith trading statement

Thursday

• Nintendo releases its new Switch 2 games console, featuring a bigger screen and better graphics than its highly popular predecessor. The company is forecasting sales of 15mn in the new product’s first year, despite US tariffs

• Econdat’s two-day spring meeting at King’s College London, where central bankers and researchers will gather to discuss the economics involved in non-traditional data and analytical tools.

• The CBI National Business Dinner is held in London, traditionally addressed by a senior member of the government

• China: Caixin May services PMI data

• Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK: S&P Global/HCOB construction PMI data

• EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement

• Germany: April manufacturing orders data

• UK: May Decision Maker Panel research

• US: April international trade in goods and services

• Results: Broadcom Q2, Brown-Forman Q4, Ciena Q2, CMC Markets FY, Dr Martens FY, Lululemon Athletica Q1, Mitie FY, PVH Q1, Samsara Q1, Victoria’s Secret Q1, Wise FY, Wizz Air FY, Workspace FY

Friday

• EU: Q1 GDP estimate

• Japan: Consumption Activity Index

• South Korea: Memorial Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: Halifax House Price Index

• US: May employment report

• Results: ABM Q2

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney joins the elected heads of the north American country’s provinces at the Meeting of First Ministers in Saskatoon

• Poland: two-day EU-US Justice and Home Affairs ministerial meeting begins in Warsaw

• UK: government publishes its strategic defence review

Tuesday

• Austria: Vienna hosts the Austrian World Summit. The event, now in its ninth year, is organised by the Schwarzenegger Climate Initiative, a body created by the Austrian-American actor Arnold Schwarzenegger

• South Korea: presidential election

Wednesday

Thursday

• 50th anniversary of the UK voting to join the Common Market, which later became the EU, in a national referendum. It voted to leave the EU in 2016

• Naksa Day observed by Palestinians to recognise the “Day of the Setback” in 1967 when Israel won the six-day war, taking control of the West Bank and Gaza Strip resulting in thousands of Palestinians being displaced

• Belgium: Nato defence ministers meeting in Brussels

• Burundi: parliamentary and local elections

• UK: start of the fifth London Design Biennial, showcasing the role of design in solving challenges. This year’s theme is Surface Reflections

Friday

• Eid al-Adha, the second of the two main festivals in Islam, begins this evening. Celebrations and observances are generally carried forward to the three following days, known as the Tashreeq days.

Saturday

• France: Roland-Garros French Open 2025 tennis women’s singles final day in Paris. The men’s final will take place on Sunday

• UK: 13th Liverpool Biennial, Britain’s largest free contemporary visual arts festival, begins. Events will take place across the city’s public spaces, galleries and museums until September 14 under the theme Bedrock

Sunday

• Germany: Uefa Nations League final, concluding the fourth edition of the international men’s football tournament

• US: 78th Tony Awards for the American theatre industry, presented in New York’s Radio City Music Hall