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The U.S. inflation rate measures the year-over-year rise in prices for for goods and services. The inflation rate typically reacts to phases of the business cycle, which is the natural cycle of expansion and contraction that the economy goes through over time. The Federal Reserve has a target annual inflation rate of 2%, and it uses monetary policy to keep inflation in check and stabilize the economy when inflation rises above that benchmark.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. inflation rate shows the change in prices year-over-year.
- The inflation rate responds to different phases of the business cycle as the economy expands and contracts.
- The Federal Reserve uses monetary policy to control inflation and keep it at or near an annual target of 2%.
- In 2022, inflation reached some of the highest levels seen since 1981, hitting 9.1% in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The 12-month percentage change for inflation in July 2025 was 2.7%.
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What Is the Inflation Rate?
The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price of products and services over a 12-month period. Two of the most common ways to measure inflation are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The CPI measures the change in prices paid by U.S. consumers over time, and it is the most popular way to gauge inflation.
The year-over-year (YOY) inflation rate is calculated by subtracting the value of the CPI at the beginning of the year from the value at the end of the year. The result is then divided by the CPI value at the beginning of the year and then multiplied by 100 to get the inflation rate percentage.
What Is the Current Inflation Rate?
For the month of July 2025, the inflation rate was 2.7%.
This means that the CPI rose by 2.7% over the past 12 months before seasonal adjustment. The BLS calculates and publishes CPI data on a monthly basis.
2.7%
The latest year-on-year inflation rate before seasonal adjustment as of July 2025.
Why the Inflation Rate Matters
The inflation rate indicates the overall health of a country’s economy. It is used by central banks, economists, and governments to determine what action needs to be taken, if any, to stabilize the economy and keep it healthy.
Policymakers at the Fed generally believe that an inflation rate of 2% (or slightly below) is acceptable for a stable economy that is healthy for both consumers and businesses. If the inflation rate drops too low and prices fall over a sustained period, it could cause deflation.
Important
Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It occurs when consumers stop spending more money than is strictly necessary and put off buying big-ticket items in hopes that prices will fall even further.
Deflation can lead to a decrease in consumer spending, slowing business activity, and high unemployment, which can have severe long-term effects on a country’s economy.
Rapidly rising prices and high levels of inflation can also bode poorly for the economy, as these changes often outpace wages, making products and services more expensive for consumers. This is why most central banks and governments closely monitor the annual inflation rate to ensure it is at a balanced and modest level, around 2% to 3%.
Historical U.S. Inflation Rates From 1929 to 2025
While the United States has experienced a relatively low and stable inflation rate since the 1980s, inflation hit record highs in 2021 and 2022 in the wake of the pandemic. The year-over-year inflation rate was 7.0% at the end of 2021 and 6.5% at the end of 2022. At the end of 2023, it was 3.4%. At the end of 2024, it was 2.9%.
The table below shows the year-over-year inflation rate in the U.S. from 1929 to 2024 based on December end-of-year data. It also compares that rate with the federal funds rate, the phase of the business cycle, the change in gross domestic product (GDP), and important events that might have influenced inflation.
| Year | Inflation Rate YOY, From Previous Dec. | Federal Funds Rate | Business Cycle* | Events Affecting Inflation |
| 1929 | 0.60% | NA | August peak | Market crash |
| 1930 | -6.40% | NA | Contraction (-8.5%) | Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act |
| 1931 | -9.30% | NA | Contraction (-6.4%) | Dust Bowl began |
| 1932 | -10.30% | NA | Contraction (-12.9%) | Hoover tax hikes |
| 1933 | 0.80% | NA | Contraction ended in March (-1.2%) | FDR’s New Deal |
| 1934 | 1.50% | NA | Expansion (10.8%) | U.S. debt rose |
| 1935 | 3.00% | NA | Expansion (8.9%) | Social Security |
| 1936 | 1.40% | NA | Expansion (12.9%) | FDR tax hikes |
| 1937 | 2.90% | NA | Expansion peaked in May (5.1%) | Depression resumed |
| 1938 | -2.80% | NA | Contraction ended in June (-3.3%) | Depression ended |
| 1939 | 0.00% | NA | Expansion (8.0%) | Dust Bowl ended |
| 1940 | 0.70% | NA | Expansion (8.8%) | Defense increased |
| 1941 | 9.90% | NA | Expansion (17.7%) | Pearl Harbor |
| 1942 | 9.00% | NA | Expansion (18.9%) | Defense spending |
| 1943 | 3.00% | NA | Expansion (17.0%) | Defense spending |
| 1944 | 2.30% | NA | Expansion (7.9%) | Bretton Woods Agreement |
| 1945 | 2.20% | NA | February peak, October trough (-1.0%) | WWII ends |
| 1946 | 18.10% | NA | Contraction (-11.6%) | Budget cuts |
| 1947 | 8.80% | NA | Contraction (-1.1%) | Cold War spending |
| 1948 | 3.00% | NA | November peak (4.1%) | |
| 1949 | -2.10% | NA | October trough (-0.6%) | Fair Deal; NATO |
| 1950 | 5.90% | NA | Expansion (8.7%) | Korean War |
| 1951 | 6.00% | NA | Expansion (8.0%) | |
| 1952 | 0.80% | NA | Expansion (4.1%) | |
| 1953 | 0.70% | NA | July peak (4.7%) | Korean War ended |
| 1954 | -0.70% | 1.25% | May trough (-0.6%) | Dow returned to 1929 high |
| 1955 | 0.40% | 2.50% | Expansion (7.1%) | |
| 1956 | 3.00% | 3.00% | Expansion (2.1%) | |
| 1957 | 2.90% | 3.00% | August peak (2.1%) | Recession began |
| 1958 | 1.80% | 2.50% | April trough (-0.7%) | Recession ended |
| 1959 | 1.70% | 4.00% | Expansion (6.9%) | Fed raised rates |
| 1960 | 1.40% | 2.00% | April peak (2.6%) | Recession began |
| 1961 | 0.70% | 2.25% | February trough (2.6%) | JFK’s deficit spending ended recession |
| 1962 | 1.30% | 3.00% | Expansion (6.1%) | |
| 1963 | 1.60% | 3.50% | Expansion (4.4%) | |
| 1964 | 1.00% | 3.75% | Expansion (5.8%) | LBJ Medicare, Medicaid |
| 1965 | 1.90% | 4.25% | Expansion (6.5%) | |
| 1966 | 3.50% | 5.50% | Expansion (6.6%) | Vietnam War |
| 1967 | 3.00% | 4.50% | Expansion (2.7%) | |
| 1968 | 4.70% | 6.00% | Expansion (4.9%) | |
| 1969 | 6.20% | 9.00% | December peak (3.1%) | Nixon took office; moon landing |
| 1970 | 5.60% | 5.00% | November trough (0.2%) | Recession |
| 1971 | 3.30% | 5.00% | Expansion (3.3%) | Wage-price controls |
| 1972 | 3.40% | 5.75% | Expansion (5.3%) | Stagflation |
| 1973 | 8.70% | 9.00% | November peak (5.6%) | End of the gold standard |
| 1974 | 12.30% | 8.00% | Contraction (-0.5%) | Watergate scandal |
| 1975 | 6.90% | 4.75% | March trough (-0.2%) | Stopgap monetary policy confused businesses and kept prices high |
| 1976 | 4.90% | 4.75% | Expansion (5.4%) | |
| 1977 | 6.70% | 6.50% | Expansion (4.6%) | |
| 1978 | 9.00% | 10.00% | Expansion (5.5%) | |
| 1979 | 13.30% | 12.00% | Expansion (3.2%) | |
| 1980 | 12.50% | 18.00% | January peak (-0.3%) | Recession began |
| 1981 | 8.90% | 12.00% | July trough (2.5%) | Reagan tax cut |
| 1982 | 3.80% | 8.50% | Contraction (-1.8%) | Recession ended |
| 1983 | 3.80% | 9.25% | Expansion (4.6%) | Military spending |
| 1984 | 3.90% | 8.25% | Expansion (7.2%) | |
| 1985 | 3.80% | 7.75% | Expansion (4.2%) | |
| 1986 | 1.10% | 6.00% | Expansion (3.5%) | Tax cut |
| 1987 | 4.40% | 6.75% | Expansion (3.5%) | Black Monday crash |
| 1988 | 4.40% | 9.75% | Expansion (4.2%) | Fed raised rates |
| 1989 | 4.60% | 8.25% | Expansion (3.7%) | S&L crisis |
| 1990 | 6.10% | 7.00% | July peak (1.9%) | Recession |
| 1991 | 3.10% | 4.00% | March trough (-0.1%) | Fed lowered rates |
| 1992 | 2.90% | 3.00% | Expansion (3.5%) | NAFTA drafted |
| 1993 | 2.70% | 3.00% | Expansion (2.7%) | Balanced Budget Act |
| 1994 | 2.70% | 5.50% | Expansion (4.0%) | |
| 1995 | 2.50% | 5.50% | Expansion (2.7%) | |
| 1996 | 3.30% | 5.25% | Expansion (3.8%) | Welfare reform |
| 1997 | 1.70% | 5.50% | Expansion (4.4%) | Fed raised rates |
| 1998 | 1.60% | 4.75% | Expansion (4.5%) | Long-term capital management crisis |
| 1999 | 2.70% | 5.50% | Expansion (4.8%) | Glass-Steagall Act repealed |
| 2000 | 3.40% | 6.50% | Expansion (4.1%) | Tech bubble burst |
| 2001 | 1.60% | 1.75% | March peak, November trough (1.0%) | Bush tax cut; 9/11 attacks |
| 2002 | 2.40% | 1.25% | Expansion (1.7%) | War on Terror |
| 2003 | 1.90% | 1.00% | Expansion (2.8%) | Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act |
| 2004 | 3.30% | 2.25% | Expansion (3.8%) | |
| 2005 | 3.40% | 4.25% | Expansion (3.5%) | Hurricane Katrina; Bankruptcy Act |
| 2006 | 2.50% | 5.25% | Expansion (2.8%) | |
| 2007 | 4.10% | 4.25% | December peak (2.0%) | Bank crisis |
| 2008 | 0.10% | 0.25% | Expansion (0.1%) | Financial crisis |
| 2009 | 2.70% | 0.25% | June trough (-2.6%) | American Recovery and Reinvestment Act |
| 2010 | 1.50% | 0.25% | Expansion (2.7%) | Affordable Care Act; Dodd-Frank Act |
| 2011 | 3.00% | 0.25% | Expansion (1.6%) | Debt ceiling crisis |
| 2012 | 1.70% | 0.25% | Expansion (2.3%) | |
| 2013 | 1.50% | 0.25% | Expansion (2.1%) | Government shutdown, sequestration |
| 2014 | 0.80% | 0.25% | Expansion (2.5%) | Quantitative easing ends |
| 2015 | 0.70% | 0.50% | Expansion (2.9%) | Deflation in oil and gas prices |
| 2016 | 2.10% | 0.75% | Expansion (1.8%) | |
| 2017 | 2.10% | 1.50% | Expansion (2.5%) | |
| 2018 | 1.90% | 2.50% | Expansion (3.0%) | |
| 2019 | 2.30% | 1.75% | Expansion (2.5%) | |
| 2020 | 1.40% | 0.25% | Contraction (-2.2%) | COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2021 | 7.00% | 0.25% | Expansion (5.8%) | COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2022 | 6.50% | 4.50% | Expansion (1.9%) | Russia invades Ukraine |
| 2023 | 3.40% | 5.50% | Expansion (2.5%) | Fed raised rates |
| 2024 | 2.9% | 4.48% | Expansion (2.8%) |
*Annual percent change in GDP
The Importance of Business Cycles: Expansion and Contraction
The inflation rate often responds to different phases of the business cycle, or the natural expansion and contraction that economies undergo over time. The business cycle, or the economic cycle, has four phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough.
Expansions and Peaks
During the expansion phase, the economy experiences rapid growth. Interest rates tend to be low, and economic indicators related to growth such as employment, wages, output, demand, and supply of goods and services are generally trending upward. The inflation rate is usually at the acceptable level of around 2%.
When the economy hits the maximum level of growth, it’s known as the peak, which marks the end of expansion and the beginning of contraction. Prices are typically at their highest in the peak stage of the business cycle, and inflation is also high. At this point, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool inflation and slow down the economy, which leads to contraction.
Contractions and Troughs
In the contraction phase of the business cycle, prices fall, growth slows, and employment declines. If this period of contraction lasts long enough, it can lead to a recession, which could, in turn, lead to deflation.
As the economy continues to trend downward, it reaches the trough. This is the lowest point in the cycle, where prices bottom out before recovery and expansion begins again. Here, the inflation rate begins to rise and the cycle starts over.
How the Federal Reserve Uses Monetary Policy to Control Inflation
The Federal Reserve uses monetary policy to control inflation as the economy goes through its cycle of expansion and contraction. The Fed focuses on the core inflation rate—which excludes food and energy prices since they are typically more volatile—to monitor inflation trends.
If the core inflation rate rises significantly above the Fed’s 2% target inflation rate, the Fed may tighten monetary policy by hiking the federal funds rate to slow the economy. The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks lend to each other. Raising the fed funds rate influences interest rates and makes borrowing money more expensive for consumers and businesses.
Conversely, the Fed may decrease the discount rate—which is the interest rate for banks to borrow money from the Federal Reserve—to stimulate the economy and raise prices. A lower discount rate means that banks will lower the interest rate for customers as well, making it easier for consumers and businesses to borrow money.
Other methods that the Federal Reserve may use to expand the economy include:
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What Is a Healthy Inflation Rate?
The U.S. Federal Reserve pursues monetary policy to keep the annual rate of inflation close to around 2%, as do the central banks of many other countries. This rate is considered low and stable, without being so low that it may weaken the economy.
What Causes Inflation?
Numerous factors can drive inflation. Major contributors include increased production costs, higher demand, and fiscal and monetary policies pursued by governments or central banks.
What Is the Highest Inflation Rate in Modern U.S. History?
Since the introduction of the Consumer Price Index in 1913, the highest inflation rate observed in the United States was 23.7% in June 1920.
How Is Inflation Measured?
The Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is the most widely used measure of inflation. This index measures the change in prices based on a basket of goods and services over time. The inflation rate is calculated by subtracting the prior period’s CPI from the new period’s CPI and dividing the result by the prior period’s CPI. This figure is then multiplied by 100 to get the inflation rate.
The Bottom Line
The inflation rate is an important metric to measure the overall health of the economy, which is why it is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, government officials, and economists. The U.S. central bank uses it to inform monetary policy and the decisions it makes to keep inflation as close to the 2% annual inflation target as possible, including fostering a stable economy with steady supply and demand.
